Comparand Blog
Plain-English guides to crypto charts, past cases and AI trading tools. Trade with history on your side. Past cases, not a forecast.
Basics 12
- Crypto base rates: how often does Bitcoin go up?Binance Bitcoin rose in 51.88% of 24-hour periods, and 10 big coins ranged from 48.39% to 53.84%. Why a base rate comes before any pattern claim.8 min read
- How does liquidation work in crypto? Margin, price, cascadesLiquidation closes a leveraged trade when margin runs out. How to work out your liquidation price, what maintenance margin is, and how cascades start.8 min read
- How to read a candlestick chart, with real Bitcoin candlesHow to read a candlestick: open, high, low, close, body, wicks and colors, using real Bitcoin candles. Green and red were close to even: 50.61% green.7 min read
- What is a Sharpe ratio? Explained with real crypto testsA Sharpe ratio is return per unit of swing. How to annualize it for a market that never closes, and real Bitcoin numbers: just holding BTC scored 0.78.8 min read
- What is a chart analog? A guide with real Bitcoin dataA chart analog is a past chart shaped like today's. What bars, windows and shapes mean, how matches are picked, and how a Bitcoin analog rule did.7 min read
- What is a funding rate? A plain guide with real numbersA funding rate is a payment between longs and shorts on a perp. Who pays whom, hourly vs 8-hour rates, and what a BTC long cost per day, week and month.8 min read
- What is a perpetual future? Perps explained simplyA perp is a futures contract with no end date. How funding keeps it near spot, what margin means, and how close Bitcoin's perp stayed to spot each year.7 min read
- What is crypto volatility and how do you measure it?Volatility is how much price moves. Six ways to measure it, how to work it out, and why Bitcoin's middle day (1.38%) and average day (2.10%) differ.7 min read
- What is max drawdown? Formula and real Bitcoin examplesMax drawdown is the biggest fall from a high to a later low. How to calculate it step by step, and Bitcoin's drawdown inside each year from 2020 to 2026.8 min read
- What is open interest in crypto? Explained with Hyperliquid dataOpen interest is the total size of trades still open. How it differs from volume, the four price and open interest mixes, and how often each happened.8 min read
- What time does the crypto daily candle close? UTC and localBinance and Coinbase daily candles close at 00:00 UTC, 8 pm in New York in summer. The next hour moved Bitcoin 0.44% on average. Local times inside.7 min read
- Why is Bitcoin price different on exchanges?Coinbase Bitcoin was a median 0.03% above Binance over 62,342 hours since 2019. See the gap by year and why currency and contract type matter.7 min read
How-to 9
- CCXT vs a hosted data API: which for crypto history?CCXT is a free library that asks each exchange for candles. A hosted API stores them for you. See when each fits, plus measured exchange differences.8 min read
- Crypto position sizing by volatility: the math, real numbersPosition size is your risk divided by your stop distance. The math, and why a stop set by each coin's own hourly range was hit about as often on 10 coins.8 min read
- Find similar chart patterns in Python, or use an API?Build a similar-chart search in Python with pandas, or call a hosted one? The code steps, five pitfalls from look-ahead to overlap, and what each costs.8 min read
- Freqtrade vs vectorbt vs Backtrader for crypto backtestsFreqtrade, vectorbt, Backtrader and QuantConnect LEAN compared from their own docs: crypto data, live trading, licences, limits, and a look-ahead trap.8 min read
- How many trades does a backtest need to be significant?Luck moves a 50% hit rate about 10 points at 100 trades and 3 at 1,000. Why your trades may not be separate, and what 3,600 real tests could not show.8 min read
- How to backtest a crypto chart pattern: 5 ways comparedCompare five ways to test crypto chart patterns, with real Bitcoin results showing why later dates and trading costs change the answer.8 min read
- How to download Hyperliquid historical data and check itGet Hyperliquid candles, funding and liquidation data as whole-day files, check them with a hash, and spot gaps first. Real coverage numbers.8 min read
- How wide should a crypto stop loss be? What the data showsOn Binance Bitcoin, a price 2% below was touched within a day 39.29% of the time, 1% below 63.54%. See 10 coins, ATR distances and what wicks do.8 min read
- What is a markout in trading? How to check your fillsA markout is the price move after your fill. Learn to work it out, what it says about being picked off, how fees count, and what a normal Bitcoin hour is.7 min read
Coins 19
- Avalanche (AVAX) price history: drops, recoveries and big daysAVAX fell 90.47% within 2022 on Binance, from $114.11 to $10.87, and fell 10% in a week on 20.40% of days. Yearly drops, recoveries, big days.8 min read
- Bitcoin Ethereum correlation by year, plus 8 more coinsBTC and ETH daily moves had a 0.82 correlation on Binance since 2019, from 0.77 in 2021 to 0.91 in 2026. See 8 more coins and what this means.8 min read
- Bitcoin halving price history: what came after each oneBitcoin was up 281.5%, 562.0% and 31.1% a year after the 2016, 2020 and 2024 halvings. See the peaks, the falls after them, and why 3 cases are few.7 min read
- Cardano (ADA) price history: drops and recoveries measuredCardano fell 46.54% to 84.77% within each year since 2020 on Binance, and four of seven yearly highs were not regained. Daily moves and weekly falls.8 min read
- Chainlink (LINK) price history: drops, recoveries and big daysChainlink's yearly drops ran 40.25% to 80.43% on Binance, and six of seven yearly highs were regained. Daily moves, weekly falls and 24-hour results.8 min read
- Do altcoins follow Bitcoin? How far each coin movesOn Binance, Dogecoin moved 1.33% per 1% Bitcoin move and TRX only 0.72%. Beta for 9 altcoins, by year, and on Bitcoin's big down and up days.8 min read
- Does Ethereum fall more than Bitcoin in crashes?On 103 Binance days when Bitcoin fell 5% or more, Ethereum fell more on 70.87%, but on big up days it rose more only 38.17% of the time.7 min read
- Dogecoin volatility in numbers: how big DOGE's days getA typical Dogecoin day moved 2.33% on Binance vs 1.38% for Bitcoin, and 1 day in 5 moved over 5%. Big days, weekly falls and recoveries.8 min read
- Ethereum price history in numbers: moves, drops, recoveriesBinance ETH moved a typical 1.95% a day, fell 10% in a week on 10.83% of days, and needed 628 days after its 2022 low to recover. Compared with BTC.7 min read
- HYPE funding rate: what holding a HYPE perp cost, measuredA $1,000 HYPE long on Hyperliquid paid a median $9.65 in funding per 30 days, the most of 24 coins we measured. Daily, weekly and monthly numbers.8 min read
- How much does Bitcoin move in a day? 11 years measuredA typical Bitcoin day moved 1.38% on Binance and 1.43% on Coinbase, yet 9.24% of Binance days moved over 5%. See each year, big days and 9 more coins.7 min read
- Is BNB less volatile? BNB price history in numbersOn Binance, BNB's median day moved 1.57% vs 1.38% for Bitcoin, yet its worst yearly fall was deeper in 6 of 7 years. See weekly falls and 24-hour rises.8 min read
- Is Uptober real? Bitcoin's returns by month since 2015Coinbase Bitcoin rose in 9 of 11 Octobers since 2015, median +14.44%. See every month, other coins, and why 11 years is a tiny sample.7 min read
- Most volatile crypto: 10 big coins ranked by daily movesSOL had the biggest typical day of 10 big Binance coins (2.91%), but AVAX led 4 of 6 years and DOGE had the biggest days. See the order by year.8 min read
- Solana price history in numbers: how wild is SOL?Binance SOL moved a typical 2.91% a day, fell 94.63% in 2022, and ended higher over 24 hours 49.66% of the time. Compared with BTC, year by year.7 min read
- TRON (TRX) price history in numbers: the quiet big coinTRX had the smallest median daily move of 10 big coins on Binance, 1.28%, yet one day rose 95.82%. See weekly falls, yearly drops and 24-hour rises.8 min read
- What happened to Bitcoin after similar charts?In 300 Binance tests, the 10 closest past Bitcoin charts split 4 to 6 up in 65.00% of cases. See Coinbase too, fees, and Bitcoin's normal range.7 min read
- What happens after Bitcoin hits an all-time high? 13 casesAfter 13 new Bitcoin highs on Coinbase, price was up 30 days later in 53.85% of cases, with a middle move of +0.40%. Every case is listed with its date.8 min read
- XRP price history in numbers: big days and long waitsBinance XRP had a typical 1.96% day but a 73.23% one-day jump, and its 2021 drop took 1,229 days to recover. Moves, drops and 24-hour odds vs BTC.7 min read
Patterns 16
- Best timeframe for crypto? 1-hour vs 4-hour vs daily dataOn Binance Bitcoin the typical candle ranged 0.64% on 1-hour, 1.35% on 4-hour and 3.74% on daily charts. Wicks, green share and noise compared.8 min read
- Bitcoin 200-day moving average: what came next, above vs belowCoinbase Bitcoin was higher 90 days later 66.79% of the time after a close above its 200-day average, 48.64% after one below. See 10 more coins.8 min read
- Bitcoin Sunday pump, Monday dump: does the pattern hold?After an up Sunday, Coinbase Bitcoin fell on Monday 54.03% of the time vs 48.55% for any Monday. See other coins, each year and the weekend move.8 min read
- Do breakouts work in crypto? 20-day highs testedOn 10 Binance perps, 39.83% of daily 20-day-high breakouts fell back in 3 days. Ten days on, the average gain was 6.26%, but the middle case was 1.53%.8 min read
- Does Bitcoin always fill CME gaps? A spot-price testCoinbase Bitcoin returned to its Friday price within 3 days after 71.81% of weekends, but a same-distance level was touched about as often.8 min read
- Does RSI below 30 work in crypto? 10 coins testedAfter RSI first fell below 30, 10 Binance coins rose a day later 54.27% of the time, but the average move matched normal hours. See fees and years.8 min read
- Does volume confirm a crypto breakout? 1,411 testedOn 10 Binance perps, high-volume daily breakouts rose 9.15% on average over 10 days vs 5.26% on normal volume. The medians were far smaller.8 min read
- Golden cross and death cross: every Bitcoin case measuredCoinbase Bitcoin was higher 90 days after 7 of 8 golden crosses, but only 8 cases exist. See each cross, 10 more coins, and a rule after fees.8 min read
- How many candles for pattern matching? Chart length mattersWe changed chart length from 24 to 48 to 96 hourly candles for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Most past matches changed, and no length won everywhere.7 min read
- How much do trading fees hurt a crypto backtest? We testedA Bitcoin rule that trades about 210 times a year went from 27.52% to 3.41% a year as fees rose. The daily version barely changed. See the table.8 min read
- How to tell if crypto is trending or ranging: 3 measuresThree simple regime measures on Binance Bitcoin by year: variance ratio, days above the 200-day average, and daily range. What each shows and misses.8 min read
- Look-ahead bias backtest example: one timing bugOne timing bug turned a losing hourly Bitcoin rule into a fake winner: Sharpe −8.00 became 59.41. See how it happens and how to check your test.7 min read
- Overfitting in trading backtests: we tested 1,000 random rulesWe picked the best of 1,000 random Bitcoin rules: +155.22% after fees in training, then −51.72% on later dates. Here is what overfitting looks like.7 min read
- Similar crypto charts, different outcomes: how often?In 3,600 tests on 12 crypto markets, the 10 closest past charts split 4 to 6 up in 62.72% of cases a day later. What a split does and does not show.7 min read
- Walk-forward analysis explained with a real crypto testWalk-forward testing checks a method one step at a time, using only past data. Rolling vs anchored windows, and a Bitcoin test scored year by year.8 min read
- Why do crypto candles have long wicks? 62,357 candles measuredIn 61.82% of Binance Bitcoin's hourly candles, the wicks together were longer than the body. See wick sizes for 12 markets and busy vs quiet years.8 min read
Data 31
- Best day of the week to buy Bitcoin? 11 years of dataNo weekday stood out in 11 years of Coinbase Bitcoin data. Monday led on average (+0.42%), but its median was +0.09% and the top day kept changing.8 min read
- Bitcoin after a 10% weekly drop: buy-the-dip dataAfter 77 weekly drops of 10% or more on Coinbase since 2015, Bitcoin was higher 30 days later 57.14% of the time, about the same as any day (58.04%).8 min read
- CoinGecko API alternatives for historical OHLCV dataCoinGecko's coin-chart history is not one exchange's candles. See what its docs say and compare exchange APIs, CCXT, CoinAPI, CoinDesk Data and Comparand.7 min read
- CoinGlass alternatives for liquidation and funding dataCompare CoinGlass, Coinalyze, Velo, Laevitas, exchange APIs and Comparand for liquidation and funding data: history, prices and limits.7 min read
- Coinalyze vs Velo vs Laevitas: derivatives data comparedCoinalyze vs Velo vs Laevitas for funding, open interest and liquidations: published prices, history depth, and which fits charting, options or an API.8 min read
- Crypto drawdown recovery time: 10 big coins after 2022Measured yearly drops for 10 big coins on Binance, how many days each took to get back to its high, and which have not recovered yet.8 min read
- DCA vs lump sum Bitcoin: every start date testedBuying Bitcoin all at once beat 52 weekly buys on 68.14% of 3,581 start days since 2016. See the start-year split, Ether, 4 years and the limits.8 min read
- Do chart patterns predict crypto prices? We tested look-alikesIn 3,600 tests on 12 crypto markets, chart look-alikes picked the next-day direction 50.22% of the time, below the 50.92% from always guessing up.7 min read
- Do longs or shorts get liquidated more? Hyperliquid dataForced longs were 58.95% of Hyperliquid liquidated dollars over 114 days, but fell to 49.64% by September. See the months and what followed.8 min read
- Does Bitcoin dump at the US market open? 1,788 days measuredBinance Bitcoin's 9:30 a.m. New York hour rose on 48.10% of 1,788 days, averaging +0.7 bp. No drop pattern, but moves were 2.02x a weekend hour.8 min read
- Does high funding mean price will drop? Hyperliquid dataOn Hyperliquid, price fell the next day after 53.37% of high-funding days, versus 52.72% of all days. See low funding, 3 days and fees.7 min read
- Glassnode vs CryptoQuant: on-chain data comparedGlassnode and CryptoQuant compared by published metrics, history, plans and API limits, plus how on-chain data differs from exchange price history.7 min read
- How do new Hyperliquid listings trade in month one?For 19 Hyperliquid coins, the typical daily move was 5.86% in days 1-30 and 3.86% in days 31-120. 17 of 19 calmed down. See which two did not.7 min read
- How long do Bitcoin rallies last? 51 rallies measuredCoinbase Bitcoin rallies of 20% or more took a median 26 days and gained 48.23%. Winning streaks lasted a median 2 days. Ethereum too, and the limits.8 min read
- How much does Bitcoin move on CPI and Fed days?Binance Bitcoin's Fed decision hour averaged a 1.10% move vs 0.42% on normal days. CPI hours averaged 1.05%, but the typical one was about normal.8 min read
- How often does Bitcoin drop 10% in a week?Bitcoin closed 10% or more below its close a week earlier on 6.79% of Binance days and 8.41% of Coinbase days. Each year, 20% and 30% drops, other coins.7 min read
- How often would 10x or 20x leverage get liquidated?On Binance Bitcoin, a 10% move against you came within a day 1.94% of the time and within a week 16.21%. Odds for 5x to 100x, with the limits.7 min read
- Hyperliquid funding rate history: how often is it negative?Measured hourly Hyperliquid funding for 24 coins: how often it was negative, typical rates, yearly averages, and how much it changed by month.8 min read
- Hyperliquid wallet trackers compared: what each showsHyperdash, Arkham, Nansen, Hyperliquid's public API and Comparand compared on what a wallet view shows, live or history, and the price each publishes.7 min read
- Is crypto more volatile on weekends? Our measured answerBinance Bitcoin moved 0.29% per hour on weekends vs 0.42% on weekdays, and all 10 coins we measured were calmer. Saturday vs Sunday, and the limits.7 min read
- Kaiko and Amberdata alternatives for crypto market dataKaiko, Amberdata, CoinAPI, CoinDesk Data, Tardis.dev and Comparand compared by published coverage, history, delivery and price, and who each suits.7 min read
- Most volatile crypto hours of the day, in UTC and local timeWe measured average hourly moves for 12 crypto markets on Binance and Coinbase. See the busiest hours in UTC, New York, London and Tokyo time.7 min read
- Polymarket and Kalshi historical data API: where to get itWhere to get Polymarket and Kalshi price history: what each API returns, its time steps, its limits and cost, plus one tool for both.7 min read
- Rising open interest and falling price: what came next?On 169 Hyperliquid coins, rising open interest with falling price was followed by a higher next day 51.44% of the time, vs 50.43% for all days.8 min read
- Tardis.dev alternatives for crypto tick and trade dataTardis.dev, CoinAPI, Kaiko, CoinDesk Data and exchange archives compared for tick, trade and order-book data: what each sells and who each suits.8 min read
- Volatility clustering in crypto: does a big day mean another?After a big Binance Bitcoin day, the next day was also big 15.84% of the time vs 9.05% normally. See 10 coins, each year, and what this cannot show.7 min read
- What happened after crypto liquidation cascades? 300 casesWe measured Hyperliquid's 300 largest liquidation episodes: price 15 minutes to a day later, longs vs shorts, before fees, and the limits.7 min read
- What happens after Bitcoin drops suddenly in one hour?After big 1-hour drops, Binance Bitcoin was up a day later 56.16% of the time vs 52.04% for all hours, and 53.77% with drops spaced 48 hours apart.7 min read
- What happens after Bitcoin has 5 red days in a row?After Binance Bitcoin's fifth red day in a row, the next day was up in 63.33% of 30 cases, but 3 days later only 46.67%. See all lengths and 12 markets.8 min read
- What happens after Bitcoin's biggest 1-hour pumps?After big 1-hour pumps, Binance Bitcoin was up a day later 52.28% of the time vs 52.04% for all hours. Compare drops, years, Ethereum and Solana.8 min read
- What time of day do crypto liquidations happen?On Hyperliquid, liquidations peaked in the hour starting 15:00 UTC (11:00 in New York in summer) and were rarer on weekends. Hours, days, limits.7 min read
AI agents 7
- AI trading agent risks: 6 guardrails before you trust oneSix checks before you trust an AI trading agent: stale data, sources, order access, spending caps, tests on unseen dates and a human read.8 min read
- Best crypto MCP server? CoinGecko, CCXT, CoinAPI comparedCoinGecko, CCXT, CoinAPI, Laevitas and Comparand MCP servers compared by data, history, keys, published prices and whether they can place orders.8 min read
- Best crypto historical data API: 6 options comparedCCXT, CoinGecko, CoinGlass, Kaiko, Amberdata and Comparand compared by data type, published prices, history limits and who each one suits.7 min read
- Can ChatGPT or Claude backtest a trading strategy?Yes, if it runs code on real bars. In our Bitcoin test, leaving out fees showed 464.36% where the rule made 167.73%. Four mistakes and a checklist.8 min read
- ChatGPT vs Claude for crypto trading research: what each doesWhat ChatGPT and Claude each document for web search, files and MCP tools, what we could not confirm, and why both need a data tool for real numbers.7 min read
- Connect Claude or ChatGPT to crypto data with MCPGive Claude or ChatGPT real crypto price history through MCP: the settings, a first question to ask, and a measured Bitcoin example.7 min read
- How to use ChatGPT or Claude to analyze a crypto chart honestlyHow to ask ChatGPT or Claude about a crypto chart so it counts past cases instead of guessing: what to give it, prompts that work and checks to run.8 min read
Using Comparand 6
- Comparand vs TradingView: which fits chart pattern search?TradingView is for charting, Bar Replay and strategy tests. Comparand ranks a coin's own past look-alike charts and shows what came next.7 min read
- Comparand vs TrendSpider: two ways to find past look-alikesTrendSpider's Analog Path Projection draws one consensus path from past look-alikes. Comparand lists each same-coin past case by API or AI app.7 min read
- How to check crypto data quality and where it came fromFour checks for crypto price data: missing bars, unfinished candles, exchange gaps and file hashes, with real Bitcoin numbers for each.8 min read
- How to find past crypto charts that look like today'sHow to find past crypto charts like today's in five steps: coin, exchange, candle size, window length and match count, then how to read each case.8 min read
- TradingView similar pattern scripts vs past-case searchHow community scripts like LuxAlgo's Echo Forecast compare with a past-case search that lists each same-coin, same-exchange case and its own outcome.7 min read
- Why chart pattern matching should stay on one exchangeThe same Bitcoin chart search scored 50.67% on Binance and 47.33% on Coinbase. Why Comparand matches a coin only with its own past on one exchange.7 min read