Cardano (ADA) price history: drops and recoveries measured
Cardano fell 46.54% to 84.77% within each year since 2020 on Binance, and four of seven yearly highs were not regained. Daily moves and weekly falls.
On Binance's ADAUSDT perp, Cardano fell between 46.54% and 84.77% from a yearly closing high to a later low in every year from 2020 to 2026. In three of those years, price got back to that high within 79 to 107 days of the low. In the other four it had not by October 19, 2026.
These are past cases, not a forecast. A "perp" is a futures contract that never expires, and USDT is a dollar-linked coin used to show the price.
How big is a normal Cardano day?
We measured how far the closing price moved from the previous UTC day's close, with the plus or minus sign removed. The typical day is the median of those sizes: half the days were smaller and half were bigger.
| Year | ADA days counted | ADA typical day | ADA days over 10% | BTC typical day | BTC days over 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 335 | 3.00% | 8.06% | 1.47% | 2.19% |
| 2021 | 365 | 3.20% | 12.88% | 2.35% | 2.74% |
| 2022 | 365 | 2.45% | 6.58% | 1.47% | 2.47% |
| 2023 | 365 | 1.77% | 1.10% | 1.00% | 0.27% |
| 2024 | 366 | 2.31% | 3.28% | 1.37% | 0.55% |
| 2025 | 365 | 2.45% | 3.56% | 1.15% | 0.00% |
| 2026 | 292 | 2.28% | 3.42% | 1.17% | 0.68% |
| All years | 2,453 | 2.41% | 5.58% | 1.38% | 1.31% |
ADA's history starts on January 31, 2020, so its 2020 row is a partial year. Both coins' 2026 rows run only through October 19, 2026.
ADA's typical day was bigger than Bitcoin's in every year. From 2022 to 2026 it stayed between 1.77% and 2.45%. In 2026 through October 19, ADA's typical day was the biggest of all 10 Binance coins we measured. Over its whole history it ranked 4th; see 10 coins ranked by volatility.
On 21.73% of days, about 1 day in 5, ADA moved more than 5%. For Bitcoin it was 9.24% of days.
What were Cardano's biggest days?
On 1 day in 10, ADA moved more than 7.76%. On 1 day in 100, it moved more than 17.88%. The average daily move was 3.52%.
The biggest rise was +72.04% on March 2, 2025. The next day, March 3, 2025, ADA fell 24.40%. Other big rises were +33.41% on February 10, 2021 and +28.86% on January 6, 2021.
The biggest fall was −41.29% on March 12, 2020, then −26.89% on May 19, 2021. For comparison, Bitcoin's biggest daily rise in its Binance history was +19.57% and its biggest fall was −39.98%.
How often did ADA fall 10%, 20% or 30% in a week?
For every day, we compared the closing price with the close seven days earlier.
| Fall over 7 days | ADA: days (share of days) | ADA: separate episodes | BTC: days (share of days) | BTC: separate episodes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% or more | 387 (15.82%) | 77 | 176 (6.79%) | 46 |
| 20% or more | 74 (3.02%) | 26 | 33 (1.27%) | 10 |
| 30% or more | 16 (0.65%) | 6 | 9 (0.35%) | 2 |
One bad week gives several bad days in a row. So we also count separate episodes: the first day past the line after at least seven days without one.
A 10% weekly fall changed a lot by year: 21.92% of days in 2022 (80 of 365), 6.58% in 2023 (24 of 365), and 21.64% in 2025 (79 of 365). The 16 days with a 30% fall were spread out: 7 in 2020, 2 in 2021, 4 in 2022, 1 in 2025 and 2 in 2026. Weekly jumps were more common than weekly falls: ADA closed at least 10% above its close seven days earlier on 495 days (20.23%). Bitcoin's own weekly falls are covered in how often Bitcoin drops 10% in a week.
How deep were ADA's yearly drops, and how long did recovery take?
For each calendar year, we found the largest fall from a closing high reached earlier that year. Then we counted the days from the low until the first later close at or above that high. A recovery here means getting back to that year's own high, not to an all-time high.
| Year | ADA biggest fall | High to low (date, closing price) | ADA days from low back to that high | BTC biggest fall | BTC days from low back |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | −67.11% | 2020-02-14, $0.07 to 2020-03-12, $0.02 | 79 | −54.00% | 137 |
| 2021 | −59.23% | 2021-09-03, $2.97 to 2021-12-10, $1.21 | not yet | −53.22% | 91 |
| 2022 | −84.77% | 2022-01-17, $1.60 to 2022-12-29, $0.24 | not yet | −66.94% | 446 |
| 2023 | −46.54% | 2023-04-15, $0.45 to 2023-09-11, $0.24 | 87 | −20.01% | 42 |
| 2024 | −59.86% | 2024-03-11, $0.78 to 2024-08-05, $0.31 | 107 | −26.26% | 61 |
| 2025 | −70.61% | 2025-03-02, $1.13 to 2025-12-31, $0.33 | not yet | −32.05% | not yet |
| 2026 | −65.94% | 2026-01-13, $0.42 to 2026-06-28, $0.14 | not yet | −39.52% | not yet |
"Not yet" means no daily close through October 19, 2026 had got back to that high. It does not mean it never will.
ADA's yearly fall was deeper than Bitcoin's in every row. Of its three recoveries, 2023 and 2024 took longer than Bitcoin's in the same year. In 2020 ADA took 79 days against Bitcoin's 137.
Look at 2025. The year's highest close came on March 2, 2025, the same day as the +72.04% jump. By the end of December the price was 70.61% below it. In this case, a one-day jump set a high that no later close through October 19, 2026 reached. Our other article compares ten coins: crypto drawdowns and recovery times.
Did ADA rise more often than a coin flip over 24 hours?
For every hourly closing price, we looked at the price 24 hours later and asked whether it was higher. A coin flip would say yes 50% of the time.
| 24 hours later | ADA | BTC |
|---|---|---|
| Hourly start points | 58,864 | 62,335 |
| Share higher | 48.39% | 51.88% |
| Share higher after 0.05% fee each way | 47.25% | 49.30% |
| Middle move | −0.12% | +0.07% |
| 10th percentile | −5.01% | −3.07% |
| 90th percentile | +5.62% | +3.49% |
By year, ADA's share higher ranged from 44.60% in 2026 to 52.75% in 2020. In 2022 it was 45.99%, and in 2021 it was 50.30%.
So the share moved with the years. It describes what happened, not a lean.
What does this not show?
It does not show where ADA goes next, and nothing here is a reason to buy or sell. The 48.39% is not a chance of rising. It covers one contract on one exchange, for a coin that still trades today. Hourly start points overlap, so 58,864 is not 58,864 separate tests. We did not test why prices moved. For the wider question of what look-alike charts can and cannot tell you, see do chart look-alikes predict crypto?
How we measured this
We used Binance's daily and hourly price bars for ADAUSDT and BTCUSDT through October 19, 2026. Yearly drops restart the running high each January and use daily closes. The 24-hour test uses every hourly close that had a full 24 hours of later hourly closes, and flat results count as not higher. Daily closes can miss a low or high inside the day. The fee line applies 0.05% to entry and exit and leaves out funding, spread and slippage.
Try this in Comparand
With Comparand connected to your AI agent, you can repeat this yourself:
- Ask: "Which exchanges do you cover, and what data does each have?" The free venue_coverage tool lists each exchange with its datasets, kinds and intervals. The chart search covers ADA on Binance, Bybit and OKX perps and on Coinbase spot.
- Ask: "Get Binance ADAUSDT daily bars from January 31, 2020 through October 19, 2026 and find the biggest fall from a yearly high." The venue_bars tool returns opening, highest, lowest and closing prices plus volume, completed bars only. Use 1d for days or 1h for hours. It is free, and your agent does the math.
- Ask: "Show the 10 closest past charts to ADAUSDT's last 48 hourly bars on Binance, and what the price did 12, 24 and 48 hours later." The shape_analogs tool uses only ADA's own past on Binance. It shows each match's path and later moves in bp (100 bp is 1%), costs $0.01 per search, and returns no average or hit rate.
You can also try 3 coins free, or see the docs to connect your agent. These are past cases, not a forecast.
The short version
- Cardano's biggest fall within each year from 2020 to 2026 ran from 46.54% to 84.77% on Binance.
- Three yearly highs were regained 79 to 107 days after the low. Four (2021, 2022, 2025 and 2026) had not been by October 19, 2026, including the $2.97 close of September 3, 2021.
- A typical ADA day moved 2.41%, against 1.38% for Bitcoin. In 2026 through October 19, ADA's typical day was the biggest of 10 Binance coins.
- ADA fell 10% or more over a week on 15.82% of days.
- Price was higher 24 hours later at 48.39% of start points, and this describes the past only.
Questions people ask
How far did Cardano fall in its biggest drops?
On Binance ADAUSDT, the biggest fall from a yearly closing high to a later low was 84.77% in 2022 (January 17 to December 29). The smallest yearly figure from 2020 to 2026 was 46.54% in 2023. These use daily closing prices.
What was Cardano's 2021 high, and has ADA got back to it?
On Binance ADAUSDT, the highest daily close of 2021 was $2.97 on September 3, 2021. No later daily close through October 19, 2026 got back to it. The 2022 high of $1.60 (January 17, 2022) had not been reached again either.
How big is a typical Cardano day?
On Binance ADAUSDT, the middle daily move was 2.41% (ignoring direction) from January 31, 2020 to October 19, 2026. Bitcoin's BTCUSDT was 1.38%. In 2026 through October 19, ADA's typical day was the biggest of the 10 Binance coins we measured.
Does Cardano rise more often than it falls over 24 hours?
Not in our history. ADAUSDT was higher 24 hours later at 48.39% of 58,864 hourly start points, with a middle move of −0.12%. These windows overlap, and the numbers describe the past only.