Bitcoin 200-day moving average: what came next, above vs below
Coinbase Bitcoin was higher 90 days later 66.79% of the time after a close above its 200-day average, 48.64% after one below. See 10 more coins.
On Coinbase's BTC-USD spot price, Bitcoin closed above its 200-day average on 61.65% of 3,911 days since February 2016. Ninety days after a close above it, Bitcoin was higher 66.79% of the time, with a median move of +16.99%. After a close below it, Bitcoin was higher 48.64% of the time, with a median of -0.98%.
That looks like a clear split, but the cases overlap a lot, and other coins did not repeat it. These are past cases, not a forecast.
What is the 200-day moving average?
A moving average is the average of recent prices that updates each day. The 200-day average takes the last 200 daily closing prices and averages them. Because it uses 200 days, it moves slowly.
When we say Bitcoin is "above" it, we mean that day's close is higher than that average. "Below" means lower. The average only exists after 200 closes, so Coinbase BTC-USD starts on February 4, 2016, and Binance BTCUSDT on March 25, 2020.
This article asks one thing: what did price do next, depending on which side it was on? The 50-day average crossing the 200-day average is a separate test, covered in golden cross and death cross results.
How often was Bitcoin above its 200-day average?
Here is the share of days each year when Coinbase BTC-USD closed above the average.
| Year | Days above the average |
|---|---|
| 2016 (from February 4) | 100.0% |
| 2017 | 100.0% |
| 2018 | 18.4% |
| 2019 | 52.1% |
| 2020 | 77.3% |
| 2021 | 70.7% |
| 2022 | 0.0% |
| 2023 | 80.5% |
| 2024 | 80.1% |
| 2025 | 73.2% |
| 2026 (to October 19) | 21.2% |
The side Bitcoin sits on changes in long stretches. All of 2022 was below. 2016 and 2017 were above on every single day. So "above" and "below" are really long periods, not quick flips.
What came next when Bitcoin was above or below?
For every day with a 200-day average, we looked at the move 30 and 90 days after that day's close. We split the days by which side of the average they were on. "Up share" is how often the price was higher after that time.
| Market | Side | After | Cases | Up share | Median move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coinbase BTC-USD | Above | 30 days | 2,381 | 59.01% | +4.28% |
| Coinbase BTC-USD | Below | 30 days | 1,500 | 55.27% | +1.55% |
| Coinbase BTC-USD | Above | 90 days | 2,349 | 66.79% | +16.99% |
| Coinbase BTC-USD | Below | 90 days | 1,472 | 48.64% | -0.98% |
| Binance BTCUSDT | Above | 30 days | 1,391 | 55.57% | +2.52% |
| Binance BTCUSDT | Below | 30 days | 979 | 57.41% | +1.81% |
| Binance BTCUSDT | Above | 90 days | 1,359 | 62.10% | +7.89% |
| Binance BTCUSDT | Below | 90 days | 951 | 53.10% | +5.49% |
For comparison, over all days, Coinbase BTC-USD was higher after 90 days 59.80% of the time (median +9.79%). Binance BTCUSDT was higher 58.40% of the time (median +7.32%).
The 90-day gap is clear on Coinbase. On Binance it is smaller.
Being above the average did not protect against big falls. On Coinbase, the worst tenth of 90-day moves after an above-average close were falls of 24.66% or more. After a below-average close, the worst tenth were falls of 34.22% or more. At 30 days the Binance result goes the other way: the share higher was bigger after a below-average close (57.41%) than after an above-average one (55.57%). So even for Bitcoin, the split is not the same on both exchanges.
Why do these numbers look stronger than they are?
Because the cases are not independent. A close above the average on Monday is followed by another one on Tuesday, and the next 90 days of each overlap almost completely.
The 2,349 Coinbase above-average cases at 90 days hold about 26 separate 90-day stretches. The 1,472 below-average cases hold about 16. For Binance BTCUSDT it is about 15 and 11. That is like having a few dozen coin flips, not thousands.
The days also group into big stretches. Many of the "below" days fall in just two years, 2018 and 2022. So the comparison is closer to "good years against bad years" than to a rule that works day by day.
Did the same thing happen for other coins?
We ran the same test on 10 Binance USDT perps. A perp is a futures contract that never expires. Each coin starts when its average begins, so histories are short.
| Binance perp | Days above the average | Up after 90 days when above | Up after 90 days when below |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTCUSDT | 59.21% | 62.10% | 53.10% |
| ETHUSDT | 57.24% | 57.82% | 55.71% |
| SOLUSDT | 49.61% | 52.75% | 46.68% |
| XRPUSDT | 53.07% | 46.43% | 56.15% |
| DOGEUSDT | 40.12% | 36.61% | 41.60% |
| ADAUSDT | 42.84% | 45.41% | 37.24% |
| AVAXUSDT | 36.55% | 25.11% | 47.79% |
| LINKUSDT | 43.59% | 41.69% | 49.76% |
| BNBUSDT | 60.18% | 57.33% | 58.43% |
| TRXUSDT | 74.33% | 70.27% | 64.92% |
Only 5 of the 10 coins (BTC, ETH, SOL, ADA and TRX) were higher more often after an above-average close at 90 days. At 30 days it was only 3 of 10. For five coins the result went the other way.
Most of these coins have only seen one big rise and fall since they started trading, so they give very few separate looks. The Bitcoin split did not carry over to every coin, which is a reason to be careful with it.
What does this not show?
- It is not a rule. We tested no trading rule and counted no costs. A close above the average is not a signal.
- Only two horizons. We looked at 30 and 90 days. Other horizons could give other answers.
- Coinbase has a long history. It includes 2016 and 2017, when Bitcoin closed above the average on every day. We did not test how much those two years add to the split. The Binance history starts later and gives a smaller split.
- It says nothing about the future. Whether a later period looks like these ones is not something this test can answer.
- Selected coins. The 10 perps are large coins that are still traded, which is not a random sample.
For another look at how long Bitcoin spent in deep falls, see crypto drawdowns and recovery times. For why a past average is not a forecast, see past crypto returns are not forecasts.
How we measured this
We used public daily price bars: Coinbase BTC-USD from July 2015 and ten Binance USDT perps from their first trading days, all ending October 19, 2026. We calculated each coin's 200-day average from daily closes and marked each day above or below it. For each day we measured the price change 30 and 90 days later and grouped the days by side. We ignored windows that ran past the last bar. Overlapping windows are counted as shown above, and the markets are never pooled.
Try this in Comparand
Ask your connected AI agent: "Which exchanges and bar sizes do you serve for Bitcoin? Then get daily bars for Binance BTCUSDT from September 2019, calculate the 200-day average, and tell me what share of days closed above it each year."
- venue_coverage lists the exchanges served now and which datasets and bar sizes each has. It is free.
- venue_bars returns open, high, low and close prices plus volume, as completed bars only. It supports a 1-day step and is free on every key.
- Your agent calculates the average and the shares from those bars. The tools do not return a ready-made average.
Comparand's coverage list shows Coinbase daily bars from January 2017 and Binance daily bars from September 2019. A 200-day average built from that data starts later than the Coinbase rows in this article, which begin in 2016.
You can try 3 coins free, and the docs show how to connect an AI app. These are past cases, not a forecast.
The short version
- Coinbase Bitcoin was higher 90 days later 66.79% of the time after a close above its 200-day average, and 48.64% after one below.
- Those cases overlap, so they hold only about 26 and 16 separate 90-day looks.
- Binance Bitcoin showed a smaller 90-day gap and the opposite order at 30 days.
- Across 10 Binance perps, the above-average side did better at 90 days for only 5 of 10 coins.
- Above and below come in long stretches, such as all of 2022 below.
Questions people ask
What happened after Bitcoin closed above its 200-day moving average?
On Coinbase BTC-USD from February 2016, Bitcoin was higher 90 days later in 66.79% of 2,349 above-average cases, with a median move of +16.99%. After closes below the average it was higher 48.64% of 1,472 times, with a median of -0.98%. Those cases overlap heavily, so they hold only about 26 and 16 separate looks.
What share of days is Bitcoin above its 200-day average?
On Coinbase BTC-USD, 61.65% of 3,911 days since February 2016 closed above the average. By year it ranged from 0.0% in 2022 to 100.0% in 2016 and 2017.
Does the 200-day average work for coins other than Bitcoin?
Not consistently, in our test. Across 10 Binance perps, the share higher after 90 days was larger after an above-average close for only 5 of 10 coins. At 30 days it was larger for only 3 of 10.
Is the 200-day average the same as a golden cross?
No. A golden cross is when the 50-day average rises above the 200-day average. Coinbase BTC-USD had only 9 golden crosses and 9 death crosses since 2016. This article instead compares each day's close with the 200-day average.