A chart pattern is a shape or rule that traders believe tells them something, like "RSI below 30" or "a breakout above the 20-day high". This topic takes well-known patterns and sayings and counts what price actually did after them. We also show the mistakes that make a pattern test look better than it was.
What did the tests find?
- RSI below 30. On 10 Binance perps (futures that never expire) from September 2019 to October 19, 2026, price was higher 24 hours after the first 1-hour close with RSI below 30 in 54.27% of 4,452 cases. For all hours it was 50.60%. The average move, +0.25%, was almost the same as the +0.23% for all hours.
- Breakouts. On the same 10 Binance perps, price 10 days after a daily close above its 20-day high was up 6.26% on average, against 2.47% for all days. But the middle case gained only 1.53%, and price closed back below the old high within 3 days after 39.83% of breakouts.
- Golden crosses. On Coinbase BTC-USD since February 2016, Bitcoin was higher 90 days later after 7 of the 8 golden crosses we could measure (87.50%). That rests on very few cases, and a rule built on the crosses did not beat simply holding Bitcoin.
- Sunday pump, Monday dump. On Coinbase BTC-USD since July 2015, a Monday closed down after an up Sunday 54.03% of the time, against 48.55% for any Monday. In several years on Binance's BTCUSDT perp, the gap flipped.
- Overfitting. The best of 1,000 random rules on Binance hourly Bitcoin gained 155.22% after fees in 2019 to 2022, then lost 51.72% after fees from January 2023 to September 2026.
The common thread: most patterns showed a small edge, or none, and many changed from one stretch of years to the next. These are past cases, not a forecast.
Where should you start?
Learn the chart. Start with Best timeframe for crypto? 1-hour vs 4-hour vs daily data, then Why do crypto candles have long wicks? 62,357 candles measured and How to tell if crypto is trending or ranging: 3 measures.
Test the famous patterns. Read Bitcoin 200-day moving average: what came next, above vs below, Golden cross and death cross: every Bitcoin case measured, Does RSI below 30 work in crypto? 10 coins tested, Do breakouts work in crypto? 20-day highs tested and Does volume confirm a crypto breakout? 1,411 tested.
Check the sayings. See Bitcoin Sunday pump, Monday dump: does the pattern hold? and Does Bitcoin always fill CME gaps? A spot-price test.
Look-alike charts. Read How many candles for pattern matching? Chart length matters and Similar crypto charts, different outcomes: how often?.
Avoid test mistakes. Finish with How much do trading fees hurt a crypto backtest? We tested, Look-ahead bias backtest example: one timing bug, Overfitting in trading backtests: we tested 1,000 random rules and Walk-forward analysis explained with a real crypto test.