This topic covers the words and ideas you need before you read any crypto chart or test any trading idea. You will learn what a candle shows, how big normal price moves are, how far prices can fall, and how perps work. A perp is a futures contract that never expires.
What did we find?
Here are five numbers from these guides that surprise many new traders.
- Bitcoin goes up only a little more often than it goes down. On Binance BTCUSDT, Bitcoin ended higher 24 hours later in 51.88% of 62,335 hourly starts from September 2019 to October 2026. So any pattern has to beat a number like that, not 50%.
- Candle color says little. On Binance Bitcoin from September 2019 to October 2026, 50.61% of 1-hour candles were green. The middle 1-hour candle had a body of 0.23% inside a full range of 0.64%, so the thin lines (wicks) were most of the candle.
- A normal day is smaller than a big day makes it look. On Binance Bitcoin perps from September 2019 to October 2026, the middle day moved 1.38% across 2,598 days. The average day moved 2.10%, because a few huge days pull the average up.
- Deep falls happened every year. On Binance, Bitcoin fell at least 20.01% from a high inside every calendar year from 2020 through October 2026, from -20.01% in 2023 to -66.94% in 2022.
- The year matters a lot for risk. On Binance Bitcoin perps, a 5% drop within 24 hours followed 22.47% of hourly closes in 2021 but only 3.49% in 2023.
All of these are past cases, not a forecast.
Where should you start?
Read the guides in this order.
- Start with the chart itself: How to read a candlestick chart, with real Bitcoin candles.
- Learn when each day's candle ends: What time does the crypto daily candle close? UTC and local.
- See why two apps show different prices: Why is Bitcoin price different on exchanges?.
- Measure how much price moves: What is crypto volatility and how do you measure it?.
- Measure how far price falls: What is max drawdown? Formula and real Bitcoin examples.
- Learn how a perp works: What is a perpetual future? Perps explained simply.
- See who pays whom to hold one: What is a funding rate? A plain guide with real numbers.
- Count the trades still open: What is open interest in crypto? Explained with Hyperliquid data.
- Learn what happens when margin runs out: How does liquidation work in crypto? Margin, price, cascades.
- Find the number every pattern must beat: Crypto base rates: how often does Bitcoin go up?.
- Score a strategy fairly: What is a Sharpe ratio? Explained with real crypto tests.
- Finish with how Comparand looks at past charts: What is a chart analog? A guide with real Bitcoin data.