These guides answer common crypto questions by counting what really happened in past price data. Each names the coin, exchange and dates, and says when a pattern was weak.
What did we find?
- The US open is busy, not falling. On Binance, Bitcoin's 9:30 a.m. New York hour rose on 48.10% of 1,788 US trading days (September 2019 to October 2026). The average move was +0.7 basis points (1 bp is 0.01%).
- No weekday stood out. On Coinbase BTC-USD (July 2015 to October 19, 2026), only 1 of 84 weekday tests across 12 markets passed the usual bar.
- Big days come in bunches. After a top 10% day, Binance Bitcoin's next day was also top 10% in 15.84% of cases, against 9.05% for all days (September 2020 to October 2026).
- Chart look-alikes did not beat "always up". In 3,600 tests on Binance and Coinbase (January 2020 to September 2026), the look-alike rule got the next day's direction right 50.22% of the time, against 50.92% for always answering "up".
- Funding flips often. On Hyperliquid, BTC funding was negative in 15.37% of hours from April 2025 through September 2026, and SOL in 30.47%.
These are past cases, not a forecast.
Where should I start?
Timing: Best day of the week to buy Bitcoin? 11 years of data, Most volatile crypto hours of the day, in UTC and local time, Is crypto more volatile on weekends? Our measured answer, Does Bitcoin dump at the US market open? 1,788 days measured, How much does Bitcoin move on CPI and Fed days?, Volatility clustering in crypto: does a big day mean another?, DCA vs lump sum Bitcoin: every start date tested.
Drops and rallies: How often does Bitcoin drop 10% in a week?, Bitcoin after a 10% weekly drop: buy-the-dip data, What happens after Bitcoin has 5 red days in a row?, What happens after Bitcoin drops suddenly in one hour?, What happens after Bitcoin's biggest 1-hour pumps?, How long do Bitcoin rallies last? 51 rallies measured, Crypto drawdown recovery time: 10 big coins after 2022, Do chart patterns predict crypto prices? We tested look-alikes.
Perps on Hyperliquid: Hyperliquid funding rate history: how often is it negative?, Does high funding mean price will drop? Hyperliquid data, Rising open interest and falling price: what came next?, How often would 10x or 20x leverage get liquidated?, What time of day do crypto liquidations happen?, Do longs or shorts get liquidated more? Hyperliquid data, What happened after crypto liquidation cascades? 300 cases, How do new Hyperliquid listings trade in month one?.
Data tools compared: Hyperliquid wallet trackers compared: what each shows, CoinGecko API alternatives for historical OHLCV data, Tardis.dev alternatives for crypto tick and trade data, Kaiko and Amberdata alternatives for crypto market data, CoinGlass alternatives for liquidation and funding data, Coinalyze vs Velo vs Laevitas: derivatives data compared, Glassnode vs CryptoQuant: on-chain data compared, Polymarket and Kalshi historical data API: where to get it.