How much does Bitcoin move on CPI and Fed days?
Binance Bitcoin's Fed decision hour averaged a 1.10% move vs 0.42% on normal days. CPI hours averaged 1.05%, but the typical one was about normal.
Bitcoin moves more in the hour of a Fed decision, and it did so every year we measured. On Binance BTCUSDT, the hour of the 2:00 p.m. New York FOMC statement (the Federal Reserve's rate decision) moved an average of 1.10% in size, versus 0.42% for the same hour on ordinary weekdays, across 53 meetings from January 2020 to September 2026. The typical meeting was 2.27 times its normal hour.
CPI, the US inflation report, is different. Its hour averaged 1.05% versus 0.46% normally, but the typical release was only 1.03 times normal, because a handful of huge hours in 2022 drove the average. Neither event showed a reliable direction. These are past cases, not a forecast.
What did we measure?
CPI means consumer price index. The US government publishes it each month at 8:30 a.m. New York time. FOMC means Federal Open Market Committee, the group that sets US interest rates. Its scheduled decisions come out at 2:00 p.m. New York time.
For each event, we took the one-hour price bar containing the release and measured its size: the percent move from open to close with the plus or minus sign removed. We compared it with a control: the same UTC hour on other weekdays in the same month, skipping any CPI or FOMC day. That is about 20 control hours per event. The main data is Binance BTCUSDT, a perp (a futures contract that never expires) priced in USDT.
Does Bitcoin move more at CPI and FOMC?
Here are the results for Binance BTCUSDT. "Average" is the mean. "Typical" is the median of each event's ratio to its own control, which is not pulled up by a few huge events.
| Event | Events | Average size, event hour | Average size, normal hour | Ratio of averages | Typical ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI, 8:30 a.m. NY | 80 | 1.05% | 0.46% | 2.27 | 1.03 |
| FOMC statement, 2:00 p.m. NY | 53 | 1.10% | 0.42% | 2.61 | 2.27 |
For FOMC, both measures say the same thing: the decision hour was about twice a normal hour or more. The middle FOMC hour moved 0.90%. For CPI, the two measures disagree. The middle CPI hour moved just 0.43%, so for the typical release the hour looked ordinary.
For scale, an ordinary Bitcoin hour at 13:00 UTC averaged 0.47% on all days. Our volatile hours article shows the whole clock, and our US market open article covers the busy hour right after CPI.
Why is the CPI average misleading?
A few events were very large. Seven of the eight largest CPI hours were in 2022. They include the May 11, 2022 release, during the Terra/LUNA collapse, and the November 10, 2022 release, during the FTX collapse. The May hour was a 7.04% fall. The eight largest hours made up 42% of all the CPI-hour movement added together.
Here is the CPI table by year.
| Year | Releases | Average, event hour | Average, normal hour | Ratio of averages | Typical ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 12 | 0.41% | 0.57% | 0.72 | 0.90 |
| 2021 | 12 | 0.85% | 0.76% | 1.12 | 0.62 |
| 2022 | 12 | 3.05% | 0.47% | 6.51 | 5.96 |
| 2023 | 12 | 0.74% | 0.31% | 2.38 | 0.97 |
| 2024 | 12 | 0.87% | 0.41% | 2.11 | 1.13 |
| 2025 | 11 | 0.72% | 0.32% | 2.25 | 1.81 |
| 2026 (to Sep) | 9 | 0.56% | 0.36% | 1.55 | 0.68 |
Read the last column. In 2022 the typical release was nearly 6 times normal. In 2020, 2021, 2023 and 2026 it was below 1. So the better summary is "large in 2022, about normal in most other years."
Is the Fed decision hour more consistent?
Yes. Here is the same table for FOMC.
| Year | Meetings | Average, event hour | Average, normal hour | Ratio of averages | Typical ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 7 | 0.60% | 0.34% | 1.75 | 1.83 |
| 2021 | 8 | 1.89% | 0.58% | 3.29 | 2.52 |
| 2022 | 8 | 1.72% | 0.50% | 3.44 | 2.62 |
| 2023 | 8 | 0.75% | 0.40% | 1.88 | 1.78 |
| 2024 | 8 | 1.21% | 0.40% | 3.03 | 3.11 |
| 2025 | 8 | 0.77% | 0.37% | 2.09 | 2.03 |
| 2026 (to Sep) | 6 | 0.53% | 0.32% | 1.64 | 1.90 |
The typical ratio stayed between 1.78 and 3.11 every year. With 6 to 8 meetings a year, one year alone is a small sample, but the pattern held in all seven. The FOMC hour covers 2:00 to 3:00 p.m. New York time, so it also holds the start of the 2:30 press conference. We did not separate them.
Do other coins show the same thing?
We repeated the test on three more markets, each on its own.
| Market | Event | Events | Average, event hour | Average, normal hour | Ratio of averages | Typical ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Binance ETHUSDT | CPI | 80 | 1.36% | 0.59% | 2.32 | 1.35 |
| Binance ETHUSDT | FOMC | 53 | 1.33% | 0.55% | 2.42 | 1.85 |
| Binance SOLUSDT | CPI | 71 | 2.10% | 0.86% | 2.43 | 1.65 |
| Binance SOLUSDT | FOMC | 49 | 1.72% | 0.83% | 2.07 | 1.48 |
| Coinbase BTC-USD | CPI | 80 | 1.08% | 0.47% | 2.28 | 1.14 |
| Coinbase BTC-USD | FOMC | 53 | 1.11% | 0.43% | 2.62 | 2.22 |
The shape is the same. Coinbase Bitcoin, a spot market priced in US dollars, matches Binance Bitcoin closely. ETH and SOL show a bigger typical CPI ratio (1.35 and 1.65), from the same 80 or fewer events.
Does Bitcoin go up or down on CPI and Fed days?
Neither, reliably. On Binance Bitcoin the CPI hour rose in 47 of 80 releases, with an average of +0.23%. The FOMC hour rose in 28 of 53 meetings, averaging +0.32%. With this few events, any share between about 40% and 60% looks like a coin flip. In 2022 the CPI hour rose in only 5 of 12 releases.
In the next 24 hours, Bitcoin moved an average of 2.43% in size after CPI and 2.59% after FOMC. With direction kept, the averages were small: +0.07% after CPI and -0.43% after FOMC. We did not measure matched ordinary 24-hour windows, so we cannot say whether those sizes are bigger than normal.
We also asked whether the first hour's direction held for the next day.
| Event | First hour matched next 24 hours | Same share, ordinary hours |
|---|---|---|
| CPI | 47.50% | 50.30% |
| FOMC | 58.50% | 52.90% |
With 80 and 53 events, the margin of error is around 6 to 7 points, so both numbers are within noise of 50%.
What does this not show?
- No direction to follow. The up-or-down shares above looked like coin flips.
- The bar holds more than the release. The CPI bar runs 8:00 to 9:00 a.m. New York time, so half is before the release. Other news in the hour is included too.
- Samples are small: 80 CPI and 53 FOMC events in total.
- Only scheduled FOMC meetings. Emergency actions in March 2020 are out.
- Some release dates moved. The BLS lists no CPI for October 2025, and lists the September 2025 CPI on October 24, 2025. We used the dates as listed.
- No trading costs and no trading rule were tested.
How we measured this
We used hourly Binance perp bars for BTCUSDT, ETHUSDT and SOLUSDT, and Coinbase BTC-USD spot bars, from January 2020 to September 2026. Event dates come from the official Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and Federal Reserve calendars, and we checked every one. For each release we found the one-hour bar that contains it, converting New York time to UTC for each date, since daylight time shifts the hour. The control was the same UTC hour on non-event weekdays that month. We never mixed exchanges.
Try this in Comparand
Ask your connected AI agent: "Get hourly Binance BTCUSDT bars for the hour starting 12:00 UTC on May 11, 2022, and the same hour on the other weekdays that month. How big was each move?"
- venue_bars (1h) returns the open, high, low and close for each completed hourly bar. It is free on every key.
- Your agent compares the event hour with the others. The tool does not return an event study or a calendar of releases.
To see the Hyperliquid market at one moment, ask: "Show labels for every coin at the UTC minute of a CPI release in the archive."
- hl_labels_snapshot returns the per-minute labels for every coin at one UTC minute. It costs $0.005 per call on pay as you go and is unlimited on plans under fair use.
- Call hl_coverage first (free) to see which archive days are complete. Older CPI dates may fall before the archive starts.
Read the docs to connect your agent, or try 3 coins free. Past cases, not a forecast.
The short version
- Binance Bitcoin's FOMC statement hour averaged 1.10% versus 0.42% normally, and the typical meeting was 2.27 times normal.
- The CPI hour averaged 1.05% versus 0.46%, but the typical release was 1.03 times normal.
- CPI was large in 2022, about normal in most other years.
- Neither event had a reliable direction: the CPI hour rose in 47 of 80 releases, the FOMC hour in 28 of 53.
- The first hour's direction did not reliably hold for the next 24 hours. Samples are small.
Questions people ask
How much does Bitcoin move in the hour of the Fed decision?
On Binance BTCUSDT, the hour of the 2:00 p.m. New York FOMC statement averaged a 1.10% move (size only, ignoring direction) across 53 meetings from 2020 to September 2026. The same hour on other weekdays averaged 0.42%. The typical meeting was about 2.27 times its normal hour.
Does Bitcoin move a lot on CPI day?
On average yes, but the typical CPI hour was about normal. The 8:30 a.m. New York CPI hour averaged 1.05% versus 0.46% normally. But the median ratio across 80 releases was 1.03, because a few big hours in 2022 pulled the average up.
Does Bitcoin keep going in the direction it moved after CPI or the Fed?
Not reliably. The first hour's direction matched the next 24 hours' direction 47.50% of the time after CPI and 58.50% after FOMC. With 80 and 53 events, both are within the noise of 50%.
What time is CPI released in UTC?
CPI comes out at 8:30 a.m. New York time. That is 12:30 UTC during US daylight time and 13:30 UTC in winter. The FOMC statement at 2:00 p.m. New York is 18:00 UTC in daylight time and 19:00 UTC in winter.
Is Bitcoin's CPI-day move bigger now than in 2022?
Not in our history. The CPI hour averaged 3.05% in 2022 and between 0.41% and 0.87% in the other full years. Twelve releases a year is a small sample.