Bitcoin halving price history: what came after each one
Bitcoin was up 281.5%, 562.0% and 31.1% a year after the 2016, 2020 and 2024 halvings. See the peaks, the falls after them, and why 3 cases are few.
On Coinbase BTC-USD, the Bitcoin close 365 days after the halving was +281.5% for the 2016 halving, +562.0% for 2020 and +31.1% for 2024. The highest daily close came 525, 546 and 534 days after, and each peak was followed by a fall of more than half. That is three cases, so it is a short history and not a pattern you can rely on.
These are past cases, not a forecast.
What is a Bitcoin halving?
A halving cuts in half the reward that miners earn for adding each new block of transactions to Bitcoin's chain. It happens about every four years. We used block 420,000 (July 9, 2016), block 630,000 (May 11, 2020) and block 840,000 (April 20, 2024).
For each one we took the UTC date of the block. The "halving-day close" is the last price of that UTC day. Every move below is measured from that close.
What did Bitcoin do 90, 180, 365 and 540 days after each halving?
We used daily closes from Coinbase BTC-USD, a spot market (you buy the coin itself, not a contract). The table shows the percent change from the halving-day close to the later close.
| Halving day | Close that day | After 90 days | After 180 days | After 365 days | After 540 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-07-09 | $657.61 | −6.0% | +53.1% | +281.5% | +2,008.1% |
| 2020-05-11 | $8,572.40 | +36.4% | +73.0% | +562.0% | +638.0% |
| 2024-04-20 | $64,968.87 | +2.7% | +3.7% | +31.1% | +77.1% |
Two things stand out. First, all three were higher after 365 and 540 days. Second, the size is far from steady. The 2016 case gained 2,008.1% by day 540, while the 2024 case gained 77.1%.
The first three months were also mixed. Bitcoin was down 6.0% after 90 days in 2016 and up 36.4% in 2020. In 2024 it was nearly flat, at +2.7% after 90 days and +3.7% after 180.
When did Bitcoin peak after each halving?
We looked at the highest daily close within 730 days after each halving. Then we measured the biggest fall from that peak to the lowest close in the following 365 days.
| Halving | Peak date | Peak close | Days after halving | Gain at the peak | Biggest fall after the peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 2017-12-16 | $19,650.01 | 525 | +2,888.1% | −83.8% (low on 2018-12-15) |
| 2020 | 2021-11-08 | $67,554.84 | 546 | +688.1% | −72.7% (low on 2022-09-21) |
| 2024 | 2025-10-06 | $124,720.09 | 534 | +92.0% | −53.1% (low on 2026-06-30) |
The timing is close: 525, 546 and 534 days. The gains at the peak got smaller each time, from +2,888.1% to +688.1% to +92.0%. The falls after the peak also got smaller, from −83.8% to −72.7% to −53.1%.
But all three falls were over half of the peak price. Anyone who bought at a peak close in these cases saw a paper loss of more than 50% at the low point within a year.
The 2024-cycle peak close on October 6, 2025 is also Bitcoin's highest Coinbase close up to October 19, 2026, where our data ends. Our look at Bitcoin after all-time highs shows what followed earlier records.
What happened in the year before each halving?
We also looked backward. The change from the close 180 days before the halving to the halving-day close was +46.4% (2016), −2.1% (2020) and +96.4% (2024).
For 365 days before, 2020 was +22.8% and 2024 was +138.4%. The 2016 case has no 365-day value, because Coinbase data begins on July 20, 2015.
So the run-up before the halving was very different each time. In 2020 the price was flat to slightly down over the six months before. In 2024 it had already almost doubled. A "price rises before the halving" story fits two cases and not the third.
Is this a pattern you can rely on?
There are two reasons to be careful.
Three is a tiny number. One extra case could change every average. Each cycle also had its own backdrop: interest rates, new ways to buy Bitcoin and big events elsewhere in the market. With three cases we cannot separate a halving effect from those other things.
Past peaks and falls were found after the fact. We know where each peak was only because the price had already fallen. Nobody sees "the peak" live. A line like "the peak came about a year and a half after a halving" describes three past dates. It is not a clock.
Our guide to why past crypto returns are not forecasts explains why a short run of similar-looking cases can mislead. For the falls themselves, see how crypto drawdowns and recovery times look across 10 big coins.
What does this data not show?
- It does not show what the next halving will do. There is no such claim here.
- It does not cover the days between the marks. Bitcoin moved a lot inside each period, and we only show the end points and the peak.
- It does not include fees or tax, and it is not a trade that anyone made.
- It uses daily closes at UTC midnight. A different cut-off time would move the numbers a little.
How we measured this
We confirmed the three halving block numbers and their timestamps against a public Bitcoin block explorer. The halving day is the UTC date of that block. The 2016 and 2020 blocks arrived during their UTC day, and the 2024 block arrived 9 minutes after midnight UTC.
The main series is Coinbase BTC-USD daily closes, from July 20, 2015 to October 19, 2026. As a cross-check we repeated the 2020 and 2024 cases on Binance BTCUSDT, a perpetual (a futures contract that never expires). Binance data starts in September 2019, so the 2016 case cannot be checked there. The two series matched within 1.6 percentage points everywhere, and we never mix them. Every peak and fall window was complete by the last bar.
Try this in Comparand
Ask your connected AI agent: "Get Coinbase BTC-USD daily bars for April 20, 2024 to October 7, 2025. Give me the percent change from the April 20 close to day 90, 180 and 365, and the highest close with its date."
- venue_bars returns the open, high, low and close price plus volume for each completed bar. It is free on every key. Use the 1d interval for daily bars.
- venue_coverage lists the other exchanges and prediction markets we serve and which datasets, kinds and intervals each has. It is free too. Ask it first to see what date range your chosen exchange offers.
- Your agent does the percent math. The bar tool returns prices, not a halving report.
The chart search (shape_analogs) indexes Coinbase from January 2017, so the 2016 halving falls before that index. Use venue_coverage to check dates before you rely on any one case.
You can try 3 coins free, see the tool docs, or check pricing. These are past cases, not a forecast.
The short version
- A year after the halvings, Coinbase BTC-USD was +281.5% (2016), +562.0% (2020) and +31.1% (2024).
- The cycle peak came 525, 546 and 534 days after, with gains of +2,888.1%, +688.1% and +92.0%.
- Each peak was followed by a fall of more than half: −83.8%, −72.7% and −53.1%.
- The first 90 days were mixed: −6.0%, +36.4% and +2.7%.
- Three cases are too few to call this a pattern. Past cases, not a forecast.
Questions people ask
What happened to the Bitcoin price after each halving?
On Coinbase BTC-USD, the close 365 days after the halving was +281.5% for 2016, +562.0% for 2020 and +31.1% for 2024. All three were higher a year later, but the size changed a lot, and only 3 cases exist.
How long after a halving did Bitcoin reach its peak?
The highest daily close within 730 days came 525 days after the 2016 halving, 546 days after 2020 and 534 days after 2024. That is a narrow range, but it is only three cases.
Did Bitcoin fall after the peak that followed each halving?
Yes. The biggest fall from each peak to the lowest close in the next 365 days was −83.8% after the 2016 cycle, −72.7% after 2020 and −53.1% after 2024.
When was the last Bitcoin halving?
The most recent halving was block 840,000 on April 20, 2024 (UTC). The two before it were block 630,000 on May 11, 2020 and block 420,000 on July 9, 2016.
Can the halving dates predict the next Bitcoin move?
No. Three cases cannot separate a halving effect from everything else going on in each period. These are past cases, not a forecast.