Is Uptober real? Bitcoin's returns by month since 2015
Coinbase Bitcoin rose in 9 of 11 Octobers since 2015, median +14.44%. See every month, other coins, and why 11 years is a tiny sample.
Bitcoin was up in 9 of the 11 Octobers from 2015 to 2025 on Coinbase, with a median October return of +14.44%. That is the best median of the 12 calendar months. The two down Octobers were 2018 (−4.55%) and the most recent one, 2025 (−3.96%). On Binance, October 2025 was the worst October in our data for 7 of the 10 big coins we measured.
Eleven Octobers is a very small sample, and a calendar with 12 months will always have a best one. These are past cases, not a forecast.
How did we measure each month's return?
We used Coinbase's BTC-USD daily prices, which are spot prices (the coin itself, priced in US dollars). A month's return is the last daily close of that month divided by the last daily close of the month before, minus 1.
We left out the first partial month (July 2015) and the unfinished month, October 2026. So this October is not in any number here. The data runs from August 2015 to September 2026.
The median is the middle result when you sort all the years from lowest to highest. The average adds the years and divides. When one huge year is in the list, the two can disagree a lot.
What did October look like year by year?
| Year | October return |
|---|---|
| 2015 | +32.77% |
| 2016 | +14.44% |
| 2017 | +48.54% |
| 2018 | −4.55% |
| 2019 | +10.29% |
| 2020 | +28.06% |
| 2021 | +39.98% |
| 2022 | +5.48% |
| 2023 | +28.54% |
| 2024 | +10.89% |
| 2025 | −3.96% |
The average October was +19.13%. The median was +14.44%. The Octobers ranged from −4.55% to +48.54%.
All 12 months together were up in 56.72% of the 134 months counted. October was up in 9 of 11, which is 81.82%. That is a real gap in this sample. The next sections show why it is hard to trust.
How do all 12 months compare?
This table is for Coinbase BTC-USD. January to July cover 2016 to 2026. August and September cover 2015 to 2026, so they have 12 years. October to December cover 2015 to 2025.
| Month | Years counted | Years up | Median | Worst | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 11 | 5 | −0.35% | −27.14% (2018) | +39.92% (2023) |
| Feb | 11 | 8 | +11.16% | −17.69% (2025) | +43.79% (2024) |
| Mar | 11 | 6 | +1.87% | −32.78% (2018) | +30.00% (2021) |
| Apr | 11 | 8 | +11.85% | −17.32% (2022) | +34.24% (2020) |
| May | 11 | 6 | +9.53% | −35.50% (2021) | +66.36% (2017) |
| Jun | 11 | 5 | −3.29% | −37.12% (2022) | +26.75% (2016) |
| Jul | 11 | 8 | +8.01% | −6.91% (2016) | +24.25% (2020) |
| Aug | 12 | 4 | −7.56% | −19.09% (2015) | +66.05% (2017) |
| Sep | 12 | 6 | −0.17% | −13.50% (2019) | +7.35% (2024) |
| Oct | 11 | 9 | +14.44% | −4.55% (2018) | +48.54% (2017) |
| Nov | 11 | 6 | +6.57% | −36.93% (2018) | +53.65% (2017) |
| Dec | 11 | 5 | −3.18% | −18.91% (2021) | +47.05% (2020) |
October has the best median and the highest count of up years. August has the worst median, and was up in only 4 of 12 years.
Look at August's average: +2.09%. Its median is −7.56%. One August, in 2017, gained 66.05%, which pulls the average up. December shows the same split: median −3.18%, average +9.37%. Averages by month can tell a different story than medians, which is why we show both.
Is October's record more than luck?
Probably not strong enough to say. Suppose each month had the same chance of being up, set by how often months were up overall, which was 56.72%. Then 9 or more up years out of 11 would happen by chance about 8% of the time for one named month. But we did not name October ahead of time. We looked at all 12 months and picked the best. The chance that at least one of 12 months reaches 9 of 11 is about 64%.
So a month that looks special after you search all 12 is expected. It does not prove October has a pull. This is the same trap as picking the best of many rules, which our test of 1,000 random trading rules shows.
There is a second problem. The 11 Octobers are not 11 separate worlds. Years next to each other often share one market mood. A month can look good because the whole year was good, and this test cannot separate the two.
Do other coins have an Uptober?
We also counted Octobers on Binance perps (futures contracts that never expire) and Coinbase ETH-USD. These samples are smaller, because the coins have shorter histories.
| Market | Octobers counted | Up | Median October |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coinbase BTC-USD | 11 | 9 | +14.44% |
| Binance BTCUSDT | 7 | 6 | +11.08% |
| Coinbase ETH-USD | 10 | 6 | +0.66% |
| Binance ETHUSDT | 6 | 4 | +8.05% |
| Binance SOLUSDT | 6 | 3 | +4.29% |
| Binance XRPUSDT | 6 | 2 | −2.03% |
| Binance DOGEUSDT | 6 | 4 | +23.62% |
| Binance ADAUSDT | 6 | 1 | −7.66% |
Bitcoin is the strongest case. Solana was up in half its Octobers, XRP in 2 of 6, and Cardano in only 1 of 6. The Octobers for Binance coins mostly start in 2020, so they miss the early years that helped Bitcoin's count. October 2025 was the worst October for 7 of the 10 Binance perps we measured, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin and Cardano.
What does this not show?
- It does not show that a month causes a rise. Nothing in this test explains why a month would matter.
- It does not say October 2026 will be up or down. That month is not finished and is not in any number here.
- It does not cover costs. These are price changes, with no fees, no timing and no real trade behind them.
- A month-end close is one moment in a month. The price can swing far in between.
- Several years in a row can share one market mood, so the number of separate cases is smaller than the count.
Our explainer on why past crypto moves are not a forecast covers why a past share is not a promised chance next time. For the same kind of calendar test on weekdays, see the best day of the week for Bitcoin. For another small-sample calendar story, see Bitcoin halving price history.
How we measured this
We used Coinbase BTC-USD and ETH-USD daily bars and daily bars for ten Binance USDT perps, with each market's own history. Each month's return came from daily closes, with days cut at midnight UTC. We did not mix Coinbase and Binance rows, and we dropped any month whose month-end close was missing. Every calendar month has only 6 to 12 observations, depending on the market. Months in this list are a selected set of large coins that survived, not a random sample.
Try this in Comparand
With Comparand connected to your AI app, you can ask:
- "Which exchanges can I get daily bars from?" venue_coverage lists the exchanges and prediction markets served, with the datasets and bar sizes each one has. Check it first to see how far back your coin goes.
- "Show daily bars for BTC-USD on Coinbase for the last five years." venue_bars returns open, high, low, close and volume for completed bars. You can pick a 1-day bar. Your AI app can then work out each month's return and count the up years.
Both tools are free on every key. The first question tells you whether your coin has enough history to repeat this test. A longer history gives more Octobers, though still not many. You can also try 3 coins free, read the docs, or check pricing.
The short version
- Coinbase Bitcoin was up in 9 of 11 Octobers (2015 to 2025), with a median of +14.44%. Down Octobers: 2018 and 2025, and 2025 was the worst October for 7 of 10 Binance coins.
- August was the weakest month by median, −7.56%, and up in only 4 of 12 years.
- With 12 months to pick from, a best month this strong would show up by chance about 64% of the time.
- Other coins on Binance did not copy Bitcoin's October record.
- Eleven years is a tiny sample. These are past cases, not a forecast.
Questions people ask
Is October really the best month for Bitcoin?
In the past, yes by median. On Coinbase BTC-USD, October was up in 9 of the 11 years from 2015 to 2025, with a median of +14.44%. But 11 years is a tiny sample, and the best of 12 months always looks special.
What is the worst month for Bitcoin?
August, by median. On Coinbase BTC-USD, August had a median return of -7.56% and was up in only 4 of 12 years. Its average was +2.09% because one August, in 2017, rose 66.05%.
Did Bitcoin ever fall in October?
Yes. On Coinbase BTC-USD, October 2018 fell 4.55% and October 2025 fell 3.96%. Those were the two down Octobers out of 11 counted.
How did Bitcoin do in October 2025?
It fell. On Coinbase BTC-USD, October 2025 was down 3.96%, one of only two down Octobers since 2015. On Binance, October 2025 was the worst October in our data for 7 of the 10 big coins we measured.
Do other coins have an Uptober?
Not clearly. On Binance, Ethereum was up in 4 of 6 Octobers, Solana in 3 of 6, XRP in 2 of 6 and Cardano in 1 of 6. These samples are even smaller than Bitcoin's.